Shoal Bay Resort and Spa Anguilla - Pure Fantasy

The dynamics of failed resort development can be difficult to understand. Certainly in the case of Shoal Bay Resort and Spa Anguilla there is an undercurrent. Clearly the land that is to be used has been purchased. So at this point it is clear that what ever the investment is, the human thinking requires that if one wants out, one would not take less than one has in the property. I will investigate some today to see if I can get the land purchase price. I can estimate it for now and see how close I come. Based on land value in the area and the selling prices they put on the properties when and if finished, it would seem to me that the 8-9 acres with beachfront must have cost about $10 million.

From the Beach Looking Up to the Sales Center and From the Road to the Sales Center

The way I get at this is rather simple. An acre off the beach was about $1 million max in this area. There are ample lots available in the $265 to 550 range even now that put the maximum price today at $1 million per acre depending on location. Looking at the land overall it is clear that some was premium and some was not. GOOGLE COORDS = Lat 18°15'7.95"N Long 63° 1'53.68"W From these coordinates the property runs approximately 600 feet towards the beach and 600 feet back with a bit of excess property away from the beach behind the obvious house.

Nice View If You Believe It????? And You Can Believe it if you Try!!! -Nice work if you can get it...and you can get it if you try......

Could they have paid more than $10 million. Of course.....would they have paid less? Based on when the property sold I am betting not much less. Of course there are two buyers of Caribbean property in the world and only two buyer. The pure RICH I do not give a damn how much it costs I don't need to make any more money buyer and the financial thinker buyer that wonders if there is any return on the investment. The price of property fluctuates between these two values. Shoal Bay Resort and Spa Anguilla relative to the build price and the purchase price is a Pure Rich buy. Financially the property might if at all one day at least pay your condo fees...that is about it. As for capital appreciation on this island, I would say you are in a 10 year period of not value growth at all........none!

So if one simply begins to crunch the numbers of the resort development one quickly gets to a disaster in any market. With about 18 buildings including stand alone villas and condo structures and the selling prices, the total investment in this area would easily approach $40,000,000 USD. The sellout pricing would have gotten them maybe $60 Million with a rental pool and management agreement on a beach where the average on season rate is $400 per night. You can do the rest of the math. Putting a "luxury" complex onto a beach that is not by definition luxury on the island missing many true luxury amenities like restaurants etc will not make luxury a reality. Shoal Bay East is a VERY DIFFERENT vibe.

The best these people can do is talk to the government about trying to get the NON Beach front property sold out to private investors who would build their own place. That will of course take YEARS as there is PLENTY of land for that in Anguilla all over the island. The more experienced you get the more land you begin to see as EXCELLENT and not just Shoal Bay East Anguilla.

This property is a complete and total loss to the investor group and the early purchaser of property. There is no way this works financially for anyone over the next 10 years. If I were a betting man, which I am, I am willing to say this property is not going to finish within the time it stated and not likely to finish at all.

Uh...What Have we NOT here!!???